When the Hudson County
Democratic Organization (HCDO) endorsed Rep. Mikie Sherrill
(D-Montclair) in this year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, it
was something of a risky bet, since Sherrill was going up against
the county’s most prominent politician, Jersey City Mayor Steve
Fulop. The bet paid off; Sherrill defeated Fulop
34%-29% in Hudson County
en route to a convincing statewide win.
But because Sherrill’s support
was so heavily concentrated in the majority-Hispanic North Hudson
fiefdom controlled by Union City Mayor/State Sen. Brian Stack, her
win came with an interesting asterisk: she, and by extension the
HCDO, only won two out of nine districts on Hudson’s county
commissioner map. Fulop won six, and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka won
one.
With every seat on the board of
commissioners up next year, that could spell trouble for the HCDO’s
stranglehold on county government – especially since two of their
incumbent commissioners already came close to losing renomination
the last time they faced Democratic primary voters in
2023.
The
two districts that voted for Sherrill both did so in landslides:
Commissioner Fanny Cedeño (D-Union City)’s 6th district supported her by
54 percentage points, and Commissioner Caridad Rodriguez (D-West
New York)’s 7th district did so by 37 points. Both districts are
essentially controlled by Stack, who runs New Jersey’s most
formidable voter turnout operation in tandem with West New York
Mayor Albio Sires.
But Fulop, once an ally of the
HCDO who split with them during his gubernatorial campaign, won
almost everywhere else. He won Commissioner Kenneth Kopacz
(D-Bayonne)’s 1st district by seven points, Commissioner Bill O’Dea
(D-Jersey City)’s 2nd district by nine points, Commissioner Yraida
Aponte-Lipski (D-Jersey City)’s 4th district by 14 points,
Commissioner Stick Romano (D-Hoboken)’s 5th district by two points,
and Commissioner Robert Baselice (D-North Bergen)’s 8th district
and Commissioner Albert Cifelli (D-Kearny)’s 9th district by less
than one percentage point each.
Fulop’s wins in the 2nd, 4th,
and 5th districts were assisted by the gerrymandered
county commissioner map,
which splits fast-growing downtown Jersey City (Fulop’s longtime
base) into four districts in order to dilute its progressive voting
bloc. The map successfully
blocked anti-machine candidates from winning any seats in 2023, but
the 4th and 5th districts were both close; Aponte-Lipski won by 148
votes, 52% to 48%, and Romano won by 235 votes, 53% to 46%. As this
year’s primary results show, it wouldn’t take much for the map to
backfire on the HCDO.
Finally, Commissioner Jerry
Walker (D-Jersey City)’s 3rd district went for Baraka by 24 points;
the district is home to many of Jersey City’s Black voters, who
were Baraka’s strongest supporters in Hudson County and around the
state.
The HCDO did a bit better in the
race for county sheriff between party-backed Bayonne Mayor Jimmy
Davis and Fulop-aligned incumbent Frank Schillari, but it still
lost a majority of districts. Schillari, who is from Bayonne and is
closely allied with North Bergen Mayor Nicholas Sacco, won the 8th
and 9th districts, and he also convincingly carried the 2nd, 4th,
and 5th districts in Jersey City and Hoboken despite losing
countywide 53% to 46%. (Davis won the same Stack-aligned districts
as Sherrill, plus the 1st district in his hometown of Bayonne and
the 3rd district in Jersey City’s Black neighborhoods.)
For now, both the HCDO and its
enemies are focused primarily on this November’s elections for
governor and for local office in Jersey City and Hoboken. Both
cities will host nonpartisan mayoral races featuring a host of
serious candidates, and all nine seats on the Jersey City Council
and three at-large council seats in Hoboken will also be on voters’
ballots.
(For what it’s worth, Fulop won
Jersey City Wards B, C, D, and E, while Baraka won Wards A and F;
Sherrill came in third place in every ward. Sherrill narrowly won
the city of Hoboken, with Fulop in second.)
After November, though, the HCDO
will have to pivot fairly quickly to defending its county
commissioner seats, and local progressives – energized after
winning two State
Assembly seats this year
in downtown Jersey City and Hoboken – will undoubtedly make another
attempt at flipping some districts.
Given the gubernatorial primary
results, they’ve got a good chance at doing so. That’s especially
true now that the county line is gone; the HCDO could previously
count on primary ballots to guide voters towards their endorsed
candidates (“vote for Column B” was their slogan in 2023), but now
every candidate will appear on the ballot as equals, a change that
clearly helped Katie Brennan and Ravi Bhalla win the Democratic
nomination for the 32nd Assembly district this year.
The 4th and 5th districts, the
two districts that nearly flipped in 2023, are the most obvious
targets. And in the 5th district, the HCDO may have to deal with an
open seat, since Romano is the leading candidate to be the county’s
new undersheriff and thus would depart from the commissioner
board.
The 3rd district, too, is
near-certain to be open, since Walker won a primary for a deep-blue
State Assembly seat this year and is set to be elected in November.
County committeemembers will meet after Walker resigns to choose a
replacement, and that new commissioner will then have to run for a
full term just a few months later; Walker, who has ambitions of
running for State Senate in two years, will likely try to influence
that process.
It’s important to note, though,
that Hudson County political factions are far more complicated than
simply machine-versus-rebels. Though he ran for governor as a
crusading reformer, Fulop spent many years as an ally of the HCDO
and supported their county commissioner slates; in 2023, the
strongest supporter of the renegade ticket was instead Jersey City
Councilman James Solomon, a sometime Fulop foe who’s now running
for mayor.
And while Black voters in Jersey
City’s Wards A and F may have opted for Baraka, they also supported
other HCDO-backed candidates like Walker for Assembly and Davis for
sheriff. The HCDO’s failure to win those areas in the governor’s
primary may not mean the organization is in any real danger there
long-term, and instead had more to do with Baraka’s uniquely
compelling candidacy.
What may matter more than
anything else won’t be known until November: who will hold the
mayor’s offices in Hoboken, Jersey City, and Bayonne, which will
have to choose a new mayor after Davis is elected sheriff. If
Solomon is elected Jersey City mayor in defiance of the HCDO, for
example, that would create a very different environment in 2026
than if HCDO-endorsed former Gov. Jim McGreevey wins.
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